AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY HOT SEATS
Herbert (Qld) Cathy O'Toole ALP 50.02
Cowan (WA) Anne Aly ALP 50.7
Lindsay (NSW) Emma Husar ALP 51.1
^^^ Government regains majority on a uniform swing ^^^
Dunkley (Vic) ---------- (LIB)[a] ALP 51.0
Macnamara (Vic) Michael Danby ALP 51.3
Griffith (Qld) Terri Butler ALP 51.4
Macquarie (NSW) Susan Templeman ALP 52.2
Braddon (Tas) Justine Keay ALP 52.4
Eden-Monaro (NSW) Mike Kelly ALP 52.9
Isaacs (Vic) Mark Dreyfus ALP 53.0
Lyons (Tas) Brian Mitchell ALP 53.8
Bendigo (Vic) Lisa Chesters ALP 53.9
Moreton (Qld) Graham Perrett ALP 54.0
Richmond (NSW) Justine Elliot ALP 54.0
Hotham (Vic) Clare O'Neil ALP 54.2
Cooper (Vic) Ged Kearney ALP v GRN 54.3
Longman (Qld) Susan Lamb ALP 54.5
Dobell (NSW) Emma McBride ALP 54.8
Wills (Vic) Peter Khalil ALP v GRN 54.9
Jagajaga (Vic) Jenny Macklin ALP 55.0
# The seat of Dunkley became a nominal Labor seat on 51.3 2PP after a redistribution changed it from being a Liberal seat with 51.4 2PP at the 2016 Election.
There are always casualties on all sides of an election batte. The biggest threat to Labor are
- the Australian Greens in inner Victoria;
-the preferene flows in Herbert QLD,
-reactions in QLD to a perception of federal Labor being 'anti mining' and therefore 'anti jobs, and retiree hamlet seats where baby boomers are reading about cash refund cuts.
An example is the marginal Labor electorate of Eden-Monaro which is a retirement haven. It’s here that the Liberals hope to seize upon brewing discontent with the $5 billion-a-year 'cash refund' cuts, to deliver an against-the-odds victory for their candidate, Fiona Kotvojs- other retirement haven seats will also be targeted.
THE AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY SHOULD RETAIN MOST OF THESE SEATS IF THE ELECTION POLLS ARE CLOSE TO ACCURATE - QLD IS WHERE THE HIGHER RISKS ARE.