A 2019 Australian Federal Election Policy Guide

SECTION 31

THE HOT SEATS  

 

In this section I list the seats that are most likely to be at risk of changing hands in the 2019 election

HOT SEAT DEFINITION  

 

A hot seat is a electorate seat at high risk of being lost by the Party holding the seat with a marginal vote advantage of less than 55.1%

 

[eg Chisolm: Liberal 53.4 % v Labor 46.6 percent]

The Coalition goes into the election holding 73 seats, 3 short of majority government. The Coalition must retain all their seats and win 3 from opposition parties to win government for a third term.  For every seat the Coalition loses in this election it must gain one. The net target is 76 seats.

 

The Coalition takes 23 hot seats into the 2019 election

 

The Australian Labor Party goes into the election with 71 seats, five short of majority government.  The ALP must retain all 71 seats they had before the election and gain 5 more seats from others parties  to win a first term in government. Again, the net target is 76 seats.

 

The Australian Labor Party takes 20 hot seats into the 2019 election 

COALITION HOT SEATS [23 SEATS]

 

MARGINAL

Corangamite (Vic) Sarah Henderson LIB 50.03

 

Capricornia (Qld) Michelle Landry LNP 50.6

 

Forde (Qld) Bert van Manen LNP 50.6

 

Gilmore (NSW) Ann Sudmalis LIB 50.7

 

Flynn (Qld) Ken O'Dowd LNP 51.0

 

^^^ Opposition wins majority on a uniform swing ^^^

 

Grey (SA) Rowan Ramsay LIB 51.0

 

Robertson (NSW) Lucy Wicks LIB 51.1

 

Banks (NSW) David Coleman LIB 51.4

 

Petrie (Qld) Luke Howarth LNP 51.7

 

Dickson (Qld) Peter Dutton LNP 51.7

 

Hasluck (WA) Ken Wyatt LIB 52.1

 

Page (NSW) Kevin Hogan NAT 52.3

 

Boothby (SA) Nicolle Flint  LIB 52.8

 

La Trobe (Vic) Jason Wood LIB 53.2

 

Dawson (Qld) George Christensen LNP 53.4

 

Bonner (Qld) Ross Vasta LNP 53.4

 

Barker (SA) Tony Pasin  LIB 3.4

 

Pearce (WA) Christian Porter LIB 53.6

 

Swan (WA) Steve Irons LIB 53.6

 

Leichhardt (Qld) Warren Entsch LNP 54.0

 

Casey (Vic) Tony Smith LIB 54.5

 

Cowper(NSW) Luke Hartsuyker NAT 4.5

 

Reid (NSW) Craig Laundy LIB 54.7

 

IF THE ELECTION POLLS ARE ANYWHERE NEAR ACCURATE THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE STRUGGLING TO DEFEND ALL 23 OF THESE HOT SEATS AT THIS ELECTION - AND IF THEY DO SURPRISE MANY AND HOLD THEM ALL, THEY HAVE TO FIND ANOTHER 3 SEATS FROM OPPOSITION PARTIES TO FORM A MAJORITY GOVERNMENT AGAIN.

GILMORE - ANN SUDMALIS RETIRING

 

Ann Sudmalis retiring because of the way she has been treated by men in the Liberal Party. Locally selected candidate pushed aside when Scott Morrison overrode this decison and replaced him with Anthony Mundine as the Liberal candidate.  10/2/2019 Nationals announce they will run a female candidate in the electorate against the Liberal helicopter candidate. 

 

Antony Greens says it won't make much difference because both the Nats and Libs will preferences each other overwhelmingly. ABC election analyst Antony Green doubted Ms Hodgkinson’s prospects and argued while she provided an alternative to Labor, the Nationals and their new candidate had little connection to Gilmore.

 

“I don’t think [her] nominating has much impact on the results. She’ll probably just take votes off the Liberal party and they’ll probably go back as preferences.”

 

It might in fact be a problem for Labor if ticked off Liberal voters see the National candidate as a palatable alternative to let the LIBS know they’re not happy Jan but not give their vote to ‘the real enemy’ [Labor/Greens].

 

She [the NATS] candidate is not a local in a traditionally Liberal seat. I think the dumped Liberal candidate standing as an Independent will drag enough of the PV away from Schomo’s captain’s pick to put LABOR within reach IF LABOR gets a 2-3 % PV boost and the women’s issue bites hard enough in Gilmore.

 

On the other hand, 61.2 % of the people in Gilmore are over 50 so the ‘cash refunds’ franking credits thing will put some off giving Labor that necessary PV boost.

 

Source: Angus Randall and Gavin Coote.Katrina Hodgkinson runs as Nationals candidate against Warren Mundine in Gilmore. ABC News Online 10 February 2019.

BOOTHBY - NICOLLE FLINT 

 

GetUp reported to be targeting the seat of Boothby in South Australia for the Federal Election. CA [ex NXT] would have a chance of winning this seat if they stood a candidate.  

 

CA had not announced a candidate for this seat as of 31/1/2019.

 

First Preference count for the Division of Boothby (SA)  2016

 

Candidate              Party        Votes       %               Swing (%)

 

Nicolle FLINT        Liberal     39,298    41.2                -9.1

 

Mark WARD           ALP         23,366    24.5                -6.2

 

Karen HOCKLEY   NXT        19,688     20.6           +20.6

 

Jane BANGE         Greens      8,001       8.0              -3.7

INDEPENDENT HOT SEATS [3 SEATS]

 

Electorate             Party                    2PP %       

  

Wentworth NSW     Kerryn Phelps         51.2            

 

Chisolm VIC            Julia Banks              52.9             

 

Indi VIC                    Cathy McGowan      55.5             

 

 Notes: 

 

Dr. Kerryn Phelps won the seat of Wentworth in a 2018 by-election in the seat vacated by former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull after he was voted out of his position by the Liberal Party.  Dr Phelps will surprise many if she able to retain this seat in 2019.

 

Cathy McGowan is retiring in the seat of Indi - she has endorsed Dr. Helen Haines to replace her as an Independent - She too will be supported by the Voices4Indi group. 

 

Julia Banks is officially the Independent member for Chisolm until the election. She is switching to run as an Independent against Greg Hunt in Flinders. Banks won this seat in 2016 as a Liberals candidate - She resigned from the Liberals three months after Prime Minister Turnbull was defeated in a leadership vote in August 2018. 

 

Chisolm was also the only seat the Australian Labor Party lost in the 2016 election.

AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY HOT SEATS

 

[20 SEATS]  

 

Marginal

 

Herbert (Qld) Cathy O'Toole  ALP 50.02

 

Cowan (WA) Anne Aly ALP 50.7

 

Lindsay (NSW) Emma Husar ALP 51.1

 

^^^ Government regains majority on a uniform swing ^^^

 

Dunkley (Vic) ---------- (LIB)[a] ALP 51.0

 

Macnamara (Vic) Michael Danby ALP 51.3

 

Griffith (Qld) Terri Butler ALP 51.4

 

Macquarie (NSW) Susan Templeman ALP 52.2

 

Braddon (Tas) Justine Keay ALP 52.4

 

Eden-Monaro (NSW) Mike Kelly ALP 52.9

 

Isaacs (Vic) Mark Dreyfus ALP 53.0

 

Lyons (Tas) Brian Mitchell ALP 53.8

 

Bendigo (Vic) Lisa Chesters ALP 53.9

 

Moreton (Qld) Graham Perrett ALP 54.0

 

Richmond (NSW) Justine Elliot ALP 54.0

 

Hotham (Vic) Clare O'Neil ALP 54.2

 

Cooper (Vic) Ged Kearney ALP v GRN 54.3

 

Longman (Qld) Susan Lamb ALP 54.5

 

Dobell (NSW) Emma McBride ALP 54.8

 

Wills (Vic) Peter Khalil ALP v GRN 54.9

 

Jagajaga (Vic) Jenny Macklin ALP 55.0

 

 

# The seat of Dunkley became a nominal Labor seat on 51.3 2PP after a redistribution changed it from being a Liberal seat with 51.4 2PP at the 2016 Election.

 

There are always casualties on all sides of an election batte. The biggest threat to Labor are

 

- the Australian Greens in inner Victoria;

 

-the preferene flows in Herbert QLD,

 

-reactions in QLD to a perception of federal Labor being 'anti mining' and therefore 'anti jobs, and retiree hamlet seats where baby boomers are reading about cash refund cuts.

 

An example is the marginal Labor electorate of Eden-Monaro which is a retirement haven. It’s here that the Liberals hope to seize upon brewing discontent with the $5 billion-a-year 'cash refund' cuts, to deliver an against-the-odds victory for their candidate, Fiona Kotvojs- other retirement haven seats will also be targeted.

 

THE AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY SHOULD RETAIN MOST OF THESE SEATS IF THE ELECTION POLLS ARE CLOSE TO ACCURATE - QLD IS WHERE THE HIGHER RISKS ARE.

CROSSBENCH SEATS - (7)

 

Seat Member Party Margin

 

Wentworth (NSW) Kerryn Phelps IND 51.2 v LIB

 

Chisholm (Vic) Julia Banks IND 53.4 v ALP

 

Indi (Vic) Cathy McGowan IND 54.1 v LIB

 

Mayo (SA) Rebekha Sharkie CA 55.5 v LIB

 

Kennedy (Qld) Bob Katter KAP 61.1 v LNP

 

Clark (Tas) Andrew Wilkie IND 67.8 v ALP

 

Melbourne (Vic) Adam Bandt GRN 69.0 v LIB