A 2019 Australian Federal Election Policy Guide

SECTION 25

 

MICRO PARTIES - ULTRA CONSERVATIVE  (4 OF 4)

 

AUSTRALIAN LIBERTY ALLIANCE party ELECTION PROSPECTS

 

(Q Society) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SYNOPSIS

 

The ALA is essentially the election wing of the ultra-conservative, self-stated “anti-Islam” entity known as the Q Society

 

Q SOCIETY of AUSTRALIA Inc

 

Q Society describes itself on a website as

 

"Australia's leading Islam-critical movement. Q Society supports an integrated multi-ethnic Australia and rejects racism, which the Oxford dictionary defines as: 'Belief in the superiority of a particular race.' Since Islam is not a race or ethnicity, being critical of Islam is not racist,".

 

The Q Society publishes Quadrant Magazine.

 

The first edition for 2019 has a cover which advertises the psyche of the Q Society. The feature article is about 'The inherent Racism of Identity Politics' followed by 'How the Left turned Free Speech into Hate Speech'.

 

Source: Quadrant Online. Jan-Feb 2019 edition. https://quadrant.org.au/

 

The recommended reading list of the Q Society website reads like this  --

 

 

Recommended Websites and Blogs

 

Australian Islam Monitor - now in an archived state, but still Australia's richest resource on Islam.

 

"Jihad Watch by Robert Spencer - America's outspoken expert on Islamic studies and bestselling author. Robert is a board member of Q Society and has visited Australia in 2011 and 2014".

 

"Winds of Jihad by Sheik Yer'Mami - Our own sheik is an outspoken expert blogger on matters Islam and multicultural enablers, rated MA/15+"

 

"The Religion of Peace - A daily tally how right-guided Muslims are spreading their version of peace around the world".

 

 

"MEMRI the Middle Eastern Media Research Institute monitors and translates media resources in the Arab world, providing an insight into the heart of Islamic culture and politics".

 

"The Long War Journal provides an in-depth insight into the world of Islamic terrorism and expert analysis on critical topics".

 

"Dr Mark Durie: The Third Choice - Islam, Dhimmitude and Freedom Australia's leading contribution to understanding the problem we face".

 

"Robert Spencer: Stealth Jihad How Islam subverts us without guns and bombs. Review Robert's complete book list, he is the most outspoken scholar and bestselling author on Islam in the West; and the international patron of Q Society".

 

This collection of readings and the website itself are tainted with broad sweeping hate speech targeted at anyone who is not male, white, heterosexual, or an empathetic female, of racism, sexism, homophobia, human climate change scepticism touted under the guise of 'freedom of speech' and ‘right wing’ white Australia migration policy fanaticism.

 

In particular, African "gangs", Muslims, Indigenous Australians,  members of LGBTIQ+ identifying communities and the "looney left", especially the Australian Greens, are frequent flyer targets of Q Society and ALA derision. 

 

However, Cori Bernadi of the Australian Conservatives who won the  defection of an ALA woman to his party in 2018, would concur with now NSW ACP candidate Kirralie Smith that she is not right wing. On the contrary, she describes herself as a

 

“part of the silent majority of mainstream conservatives whose voices are now being heard”.

 

Sources

"Wilders-backed ALA won't join Bernardi". SBS. 11 April

2017.https://www.sbs.com.au/news/wilders-backed-ala-won-t-join-bernardi

 

Nick O'Malley. Anti-halal leader Kirralie Smith joins Cory Bernardi's Australian Conservatives. Sydney Morning Herald. 7 April 2017. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/antihalal-leader-kirralie-smith-joins-cory-bernardis-australian-conservatives-20170407-gvgb8f.html

 

Sydney Morning Herald. Islam Critic Kirralie Smith seen as potential libertarian leader. January 28 2017. https://www.smh.com.au/national/islamcritical-kirralie-smith-seen-as-potential-libertarian-leader-20170128-gu0lng.html 28 January 2017

 

Inside the sick, sad world of the Q Society and the Australian Liberty Alliance party. The Saturday Paper. 25 Fe 2017.

www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/02/25/inside-the-sick-sad-world-the-q-society-and-the-australian-liberty-alliance

 

THE AUSTRALIAN LIBERTY ALLIANCE PARTY LAUNCH

 

The Australian Liberty Alliance (ALA) party was launched in Perth by Q Society hero, the far-right anti-immigration Dutch MP Geert Wilders, in October 2015.

 

The party, inspired by Mr Wilders in the Netherlands, wants to ban full-face coverings in public spaces and calls for a 10-year moratorium on resident visa applications by people from Islamic countries.

 

Mr Wilders has labelled Islam "retarded", called the Prophet Mohammed a paedophile and compared the Koran to Hitler's Mein Kampf.

 

ALA party director Andrew Horwood told reporters that Islam does not fit with Australian values.

 

"Our key concerns would be the lack of respect we have for other individuals in society, our education standards, the debt that we're leaving our children and we're highly concerned about the religion of Islam. Islam in its current form doesn't fit with Australian values and if we want to retain the gift of living in the greatest country in the world and passing it onto the next generation, we need to be able to have these honest and frank discussions. We're very happy for people to come to this country ... but we want people who are going to integrate and we want people who are going to respect our laws and our values"

 

Source: Sydney Morning Herald. Australian Liberty Alliance, the anti-Islam, Donald Trump-style Party claims major growth. www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australian-liberty-alliance-the-antiislam-donald-trumpstyle-party-claims-major-growth-20160406-go08lq.html

 

See the AUSTRALIAN CONSERVATIVES chapter for further discussion of the ALA and Q Society entities

Q Society and ALA president Debbie Robinson (second from right) with (from left) Kirralie Smith, Dutch politician Geert Wilders and ALA member Bernard Gaynor.

2016 ALA ELECTION CANDIDATES PRIMARY VOTE HOR (10 seats)

 

 

The 2016 Federal Election results for the ALA first glance at the self-stated “anti-Islam” Australian Liberty Alliance party performance at the 2016 suggests they are the most unsupported and -therefore irrelevant- of all the micro parties contesting contemporary Australian elections.

 

The ALA recorded a total of 25,337 House of Representatives [HOR] votes across Australia, representing 0.17 percent of the 14,262,016 people who voted at the 2016 election.

 

However, a deeper look at the 10 seats the ALA contested in 2016 indicates that they did have an impact on the outcome of several seats, particularly three Australian Labor Party seats (Macquarie, Lindsay, Griffith) and one Liberal National Party seat (Forde).

 

Like the Pauline Hanson One Nation Party, the measure of ‘success’ for this micro party in the HOR is not measured in seats won for the party, but the influence the party has on the outcome of marginal seats for the two major parties and the Australian Greens minor party.

 

The average 2PP preferred preference flow of the ALA went 68.2 percent to the Coalition and 31.8 percent to the Australian Labor Party in the 10 HOR seats the ALA contested.

 

In the Senate, the ALA recorded a total of 102,982 Senate votes across Australia, representing 0.74 percent of the 14,262,016 people who voted at the 2016 election.

 

The ALA fielded 2-3 senate candidates in all six Australian States. The ALA chose not to field senate candidates in the ACT or NT.

 

Four times as many people voted for the ALA in the Senate race compared to the HOR. If all of those 102, 982 senate ALA supporters had also voted for them in the HOR, the influence of the ALA on HOR seat outcomes would have been three times more significant.

 

THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES [HOR]

 

If the reader only wants to know if the ALA has any chance of winning a HOR seat, the short answer is absolutely not. Move on to the Senate which produces the same result, no chance for the ALA. On the other hand, the influence of the ALA on 3 marginal seats held by the Australian Labor Party and one held by the LNP could make reading on here worthwhile.

 

For six Coaltion held seats, the input of the ALA party had little input into the outcome of the seat 2PP margin for the incumbent in 2016. There was a positive contribution given the ALA tends to give their preferences to the Coalition ( 68.2 percent ) more often than they do the ALP ( 31.8 percent). However, the 2PP margin was so relatively high their absence would not have made much difference to the result.

 

These six seats were

 

Seat         State    Party           2PP MARGIN          ALA PRIMARY

                                                            %                             VOTE %

 

Bradfeild NSW   Liberal                  71.0                            1.9

Farrer      NSW   Liberal                   70.5                            6.0

Bowman QLD     LNP                      57.0                            3.5

Fisher      QLD     LNP                      59.0                            3.5

Hinkler    QLD     LNP                      58.4                            1.8  

Curtin       WA     Liberal                  70.7                            1.8

 

 

So far so good for the Coalition here

 

However, it is when the micro parties like the ALA enter into contests for marginal seats when every vote counts that major parties must sit up and take notice.

 

It is one thing to have to negotiate passing legislation through the senate with the likes of Fraser Anning, David Lleyonhelm, Brian Burston, Adam Storer, and PHON when they take advantage of a double dissolution election and win one of 12 seats in their state on 19 personal votes for example (Fraser Anning) along with the likes of Cori Bernadi who won a six year senate term under the Liberal label then promptly worked on a defection to his own party. Some of these double dissolution insurgents will disappear at the 2019 election.

 

However, when the ALA and other micro parties influence, if not determine, the outcome of HOR seats which in turn determines who will win government in the first place, they become more than a temporary annoyance needed to pass legislation. 

 

In all four seats below, the ALA party among other were king or queen makers or breakers among other contributors, not the major party loyalist voters. You only need a thousand or so voters in a tight marginal  electorate to buy into the 'threat of Islam' (ALA party), the need to send the unemployed to eradicate cane toads (Pauline Hanson), the need to stop chocolate manufacturers to from changing the name of Easter Eggs to Happy Eggs or Holiday Eggs (Cori Bernadi and David Lleyonhelm) or banning Muslim and African immigration (Fraser Anning) to change an electorate seat outcome.  

 

The ALA party have 'a thousand or so' votes' as do others and this the difficulty for both major party election strategists and people trying to predict a seat outcome. 

 

Seat              State     Party     2PP MARGIN     2PP   ALA PRIMARY        ALA 

                                                      VOTES                %              VOTES               %

 

Macquarie   NSW       ALP          +4,014               52.1              1,693             1.8

 

 

Lindsay        NSW       ALP          +1,990               51.1              2,110             2.3

 

Griffith          QLD        ALP          +2,945               51.6              1,477            1.6 

 

Forde           QLD        LNP           +1062               50.6               2,905            3.4

 

 

The influence of ALA in this election will be usurped by a general swing away from the Coalition which will protect the three ALP seats mentioned above from minor party preference based extinction and may save Forde for the LNP with 3.4 percent of the PV going to the ALA party last time around. 

 

 

 

 

 

Sources 

https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-133.htm https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-108.htm https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-118.htm https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-128.htm https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-163.htm https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-155.htm https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-162.htm https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-161.htm https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-166.htm https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-238.htm https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-20499-NAT.htm

THE SENATE

 

First Preference Senate votes in NSW – Australian Liberty Alliance 2016

 

Votes                                             1st Pref Votes     (%)

 

Candidate

ANDERSON, Gary                           3,113                 0.07

SMITH, Kirralie                                   827                 0.02

Group Total                                    29,795                0.66

 

First Preference Senate votes in VIC – Australian Liberty Alliance 2016

 

Votes                                           1st Pref Votes        (%) 

 

Candidate

JONES, Daniel                                  1,680                0.05

NICHOLLS, Kenneth                              58               0.00

Group Total                                     23,080               0.66

 

First Preference Senate votes in QLD – Australian Liberty Alliance 2016

 

Votes                                           1st Pref Votes         (%)

 

Candidate

GAYNOR, Bernard                           2,845                 0.10

BIGGS, Alan                                           78                 0.00

DOBSON, Chelle                                    62                 0.00

Group Total                                     29,392                1.08

 

First Preference Senate votes in WA – Australian Liberty Alliance 2016

 

Votes                                          1st Pref Votes          (%)

 

Candidate

ROBINSON, Debbie                            1,232                0.09

HERCOCK, Marion                                  59                0.00

Group Total                                       15,168               1.11

 

First Preference Senate votes in SA – Australian Liberty Alliance 2016

 

Votes                                        1st Pref Votes            (%)

 

Candidate

MARSH, Wanda Lee                            527                 0.05

HORWOOD, Andrew                               61                 0.01

Group Total                                        4,435                 0.42

 

First Preference Senate votes in TAS – Australian Liberty Alliance 2016

 

Votes 1st Pref Votes (%)

    

Candidate

ROBINSON,Tony                                   227                0.07 

HORWOOD, Susan                                  11                0.00   

Group Total                                         1,112                0.33

 

NATIONAL                                       102,982             0.74

Sources: 

 

https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/SenateCandidates-20499.htm Senate: First preferences by candidate and State https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefs-20499-NSW.htm https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefs-20499-VIC.htm https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefs-20499-QLD.htm https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefs-20499-WA.htm https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefs-20499-SA.htm https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefs-20499-TAS.htm https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-20499-NAT.htm

 

Senate Seat Prospects for 2019

 

The extremely low senate first preference votes cited above were recorded in a double dissolution election in 2016 when 12 seats were up for selection in each State. The ALA performed very poorly in the senate seat race then. Facing a more daunting task of competing for one of six seats in 2019, the chance of the ALA winning a senate seat or two in this election are even more remote. The Australian Liberty Alliance party will again have no representatives in either house of Parliament after the 2019 election.