A 2019 Australian Federal Election Policy Guide

SECTION 30

 

 

THE BOTTOM LINE - WHO WILL WIN THE ELECTION

(2 OF 3)

 

WHAT THE ELECTION POLLS ARE FORECASTING 

 

 

Newspoll election polls since 2016 have consistently favoured Labor with the Coalition losing 35 polls in a row by Christmas and the last quarterly review suggesting a 24 seat drubbing awaits the Coalition in 2019.

 

Are these polls no more than ‘good print’ for The Australian newspaper cited all over the country or is there some merit in these alarming polls?

 

Can reminders that John Howard won another term in Government at least once in the face of ‘disastrous polls’ temper Labor zealots excitement or soothe the nerves of marginal Coalition seat incumbents?

 

Will Labor ‘play dead’ to ensure the January -May 2019 polls keeping tracking their way?

 

Will the Coalition or the political gods ‘pull a rabbit out of a hat’ to miraculously avert disaster ?

 

I have posted some polls information here but for up to date and highly detailed work go to the no1 election poll expert in Australia William Bowe at Pollbludger --

 

The Poll Bludger Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia

 

https://www.pollbludger.net/

PLACE YOUR BETS – WHAT THE ELECTION POLLS ARE FORECASTING

 

In December 2018, The Australian published the quarterly NEWSPOLL results for Oct -Dec 2018 and compared these results to the 2016 election Primary Vote and Two-Party -Preferred results in the five major States of Australia where most elections are won.

 

The alarming results for the Coalition are that this late 2018 NEWSPOLL summary suggests a State wide swing against the Government in NSW, VIC, QLD, WA and SA would cost the Coalition 24 seats at the 2019 election.

 

This would be a landslide similar to 2007 [Rudd] and 2013 [Abbott].

 

Is the NEWSPOLL quarterly result more than ‘good newspaper copy’ that would have ruined the Caffe Latte and smashed avocado Boxing Day breakfast of diners in North Sydney coffee shops who lifted the complimentary Australian newspaper from a table vacated by a laughing Malcolm Turnbull ?

 

In order to take this alarming number of seats lost at face value, the reader would have to put aside 3 things at least.

 

First, the Antony Green reminder that PV and 2PP swings are never uniform across a State or the nation

 

Second, other election experts tell us that in Queensland and Western Australia [where 15 of the NEWSPOLL projected 24 seats losses reside], the actual election results have often defied the voting polls trends that preceded them.

 

Third, support for candidates other than the Coalition or Labor, [particularly in Queensland], have soared from 6.9 percent in 2007 to 2016 to 29.6 percent in 2016, first at the expense of Labor and then draining votes from the LNP. One Nation preference votes in Flynn, for example, split 50-50 between the LNP and Labor despite One Nation directing voters away from Labor in 2016.

 

A Flynn electorate business owner was looking forward to a Coalition “annihilation” at the ballot box following the shift away from the Tony Abbott agenda.

 

“The Libs are so disappointing. Words can’t describe how angry people are. I don’t blame Turnbull for being a left winger who joined the Liberals. I blame the bed-wetting Liberals for letting him in”.

 

A grazier in Flynn said the Nationals leadership was failing to ‘cut through’ the way Barnaby Joyce did before he was cut down by the adultery and nepotism scandal.

 

 

NEWS POLL OCT – DEC 2018 – 6896 participants

 

                    2016       2018      2018      2018           2018          SEATS

 

State         Coalition               SWING Coalition      SWING         LOST

 

                     2PP         2PP       2PP         PV              PV

 

NSW/ACT   49.9        46.0      - 3.9        34.0             -7.9                -4

 

VIC               48.2        44.0      -4.2         36.0            -5.8                 -3

 

QLD              54.1       46.0       - 8.1        34.0             -9.2              -10

 

WA                54.7      47.0        -7.2         38.0           -10.7               -5

 

SA                 47.7      42.0        - 5.7        30.0             -5.1               -2

 

National       50.4      45.0         - 5.4       35.0            -7.2               -24

 

Government seats lost assumes an unlikely uniform swing within each state compared to the 2016 election.

 

The Australian reports on the NEWSPOLL included a list of the specific seats that would be lost by the Coalition and others that were slated as ‘at risk’ if the election results followed the polls.

 

NSW -3.9 Gilmore Robertson Banks Page Cowper, Reid

 

VIC -4.2  Corangamite Chisolm Latrobe Casey, Aston Deakin

 

QLD -8.1 Capricornia Forde Flynn Petrie Dickson Wide Bay, Hinkler, Ryan Dawson Bonner Leichardt Brisbane Bowman

 

WA -7.7 Hasluck Swan Pearce Stirling Canning

 

SA -5.5 (2) Grey (1.9 v NXT/CA) Boothby Sturt

 

Antony Green and other election experts will also be aware that the 2018 Oct-Dec quarterly NEWSPOLL projection of a 24 seat loss to the Coalition is strikingly similar to the brilliant work of William Bowe, except in Victoria . His election poll analytical software has tracked every available election poll since the 2016 election. His projection at the same time as this NEWSPOLL in late December 2018 was a 25 seat loss to the Coalition.

 

        STATE              WILLIAM BOWE NEWSPOLL

 

NSW                                  5                  4

VIC                                     6                  3

QLD                                   9                10

WA                                    4                   5

SA                                     1                   2

Total                                25                 24

 

Sources: https://www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019/index.htm?--

 

The Australian. P 1-2 Dec 26 2018]

 

A loss on this scale would be as good as Rudd in 2007 and Abbott in 2013.  For my money, I will halve the Queensland and WA seat gains because BOTH often defy election polls. I am reading these polls as foretelling an 18 seat win for the Australian Labor Party (ALP).

 

The ALP only needs to hold what they won in 2016, and the three seats nominally attributed to them by the redistribution and win a further 5 seats to win majority government in 2019. The polls suggested in December 2018 that this was very likely.

WILLIAM BOWE UPDATE 27/1/2019

 

     2PP                      VOTES           SWING

 

COALITION               46.3%            -4.1%

 

LABOR                       53.7%           +4.1%

 

PRIMARY VOTE       VOTES          SWING

 

Coalition                    37.4%           -4.6%

Labor                         38.5%            +3.8%

Greens                      10.0%             -0.2%

One Nation                 6.9%            +5.6%

 

SEATS CHANGE COALITION 54 -22------ LABOR 91 +22-----Others 6 +1

 

The Coalition loss of seats has dropped at this stage from 25 in December 2018 to 22 in January 2019 according to William Bowe's election poll tracking software. 

 

Source: Poll Bludger. Bludger Tracker: Aggregated Opinion Poll trend and federal election result projection. 27 January 2019. 

https://www.pollbludger.net/

 

UPDATE 12 FEBRUARY 2019 

 

Labor extends lead over Coalition 55%-45%, Guardian Essential poll shows Voters impatient to see reform in wake of banking royal commission, the latest survey suggests.

 

The banking royal commission findings appear to have delivered a political fillip to Labor January 53-47 Last week 52-48

 

This week 55-45 PV Labor 38% Coalition 34% X Bench PV up from 9% t0 11 %

 

People are impatient to see parliament move on the changes proposed by the royal commissioner. Labor voters (63%) and Coalition voters (62%) say the current session of parliament should not conclude until the banking royal commission overhaul is dealt with.

 

Labor or Coalition wont make a difference on outcome of the Banking Royal Commission according to Labor (40 %) and Coalition (44 %) voters, nor  Micro Parties (37%) - Greens 45% Micro/Ind.58% All 35%

 

39% of the survey believe the government never supported the inquiry and will do all it can to water down the recommendations.