PLACE YOUR BETS – WHAT THE ELECTION POLLS ARE FORECASTING
In December 2018, The Australian published the quarterly NEWSPOLL results for Oct -Dec 2018 and compared these results to the 2016 election Primary Vote and Two-Party -Preferred results in the five major States of Australia where most elections are won.
The alarming results for the Coalition are that this late 2018 NEWSPOLL summary suggests a State wide swing against the Government in NSW, VIC, QLD, WA and SA would cost the Coalition 24 seats at the 2019 election.
This would be a landslide similar to 2007 [Rudd] and 2013 [Abbott].
Is the NEWSPOLL quarterly result more than ‘good newspaper copy’ that would have ruined the Caffe Latte and smashed avocado Boxing Day breakfast of diners in North Sydney coffee shops who lifted the complimentary Australian newspaper from a table vacated by a laughing Malcolm Turnbull ?
In order to take this alarming number of seats lost at face value, the reader would have to put aside 3 things at least.
First, the Antony Green reminder that PV and 2PP swings are never uniform across a State or the nation
Second, other election experts tell us that in Queensland and Western Australia [where 15 of the NEWSPOLL projected 24 seats losses reside], the actual election results have often defied the voting polls trends that preceded them.
Third, support for candidates other than the Coalition or Labor, [particularly in Queensland], have soared from 6.9 percent in 2007 to 2016 to 29.6 percent in 2016, first at the expense of Labor and then draining votes from the LNP. One Nation preference votes in Flynn, for example, split 50-50 between the LNP and Labor despite One Nation directing voters away from Labor in 2016.
A Flynn electorate business owner was looking forward to a Coalition “annihilation” at the ballot box following the shift away from the Tony Abbott agenda.
“The Libs are so disappointing. Words can’t describe how angry people are. I don’t blame Turnbull for being a left winger who joined the Liberals. I blame the bed-wetting Liberals for letting him in”.
A grazier in Flynn said the Nationals leadership was failing to ‘cut through’ the way Barnaby Joyce did before he was cut down by the adultery and nepotism scandal.
NEWS POLL OCT – DEC 2018 – 6896 participants
2016 2018 2018 2018 2018 SEATS
State Coalition SWING Coalition SWING LOST
2PP 2PP 2PP PV PV
NSW/ACT 49.9 46.0 - 3.9 34.0 -7.9 -4
VIC 48.2 44.0 -4.2 36.0 -5.8 -3
QLD 54.1 46.0 - 8.1 34.0 -9.2 -10
WA 54.7 47.0 -7.2 38.0 -10.7 -5
SA 47.7 42.0 - 5.7 30.0 -5.1 -2
National 50.4 45.0 - 5.4 35.0 -7.2 -24
Government seats lost assumes an unlikely uniform swing within each state compared to the 2016 election.
The Australian reports on the NEWSPOLL included a list of the specific seats that would be lost by the Coalition and others that were slated as ‘at risk’ if the election results followed the polls.
NSW -3.9 Gilmore Robertson Banks Page Cowper, Reid
VIC -4.2 Corangamite Chisolm Latrobe Casey, Aston Deakin
QLD -8.1 Capricornia Forde Flynn Petrie Dickson Wide Bay, Hinkler, Ryan Dawson Bonner Leichardt Brisbane Bowman
WA -7.7 Hasluck Swan Pearce Stirling Canning
SA -5.5 (2) Grey (1.9 v NXT/CA) Boothby Sturt
Antony Green and other election experts will also be aware that the 2018 Oct-Dec quarterly NEWSPOLL projection of a 24 seat loss to the Coalition is strikingly similar to the brilliant work of William Bowe, except in Victoria . His election poll analytical software has tracked every available election poll since the 2016 election. His projection at the same time as this NEWSPOLL in late December 2018 was a 25 seat loss to the Coalition.
STATE WILLIAM BOWE NEWSPOLL
NSW 5 4
VIC 6 3
QLD 9 10
WA 4 5
SA 1 2
Total 25 24
The Australian. P 1-2 Dec 26 2018]
A loss on this scale would be as good as Rudd in 2007 and Abbott in 2013. For my money, I will halve the Queensland and WA seat gains because BOTH often defy election polls. I am reading these polls as foretelling an 18 seat win for the Australian Labor Party (ALP).
The ALP only needs to hold what they won in 2016, and the three seats nominally attributed to them by the redistribution and win a further 5 seats to win majority government in 2019. The polls suggested in December 2018 that this was very likely.