A 2019 Australian Federal Election Policy Guide

SECTION 29

 

 

THE BOTTOM LINE - WHO WILL WIN THE ELECTION (1 OF 3)

 

THE CURRENT  ELECTED MEMBERS AND ELECTION 2019 PROSPECTS

 

 

---------------------------- ELECTED MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT, XMAS 2018----------------------

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

 

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 

 

 76 seats wins Majority Government

 

 

 

YEAR                     COALITiON           ALP           OTHERS          TOTAL

 

2016 Election           76                       69                   5                  150

 

2018 December       74                       69                   7                  150

 

2019 Pre-election    73                      71                   7                   151

 

 

The COALITION goes into the election needing to win 3 more seats than it holds (73) to win the 2019 election.

 

The ALP goes into the election needing to win 5 more seats than it holds [3 of them nominally] to win the 2019 election.

 

Notes

 

 

– the Coalition seat of Dunkley became a ALP seat (nominal) by redistributions in VIC

 

- The new seat of Fraser was created, an ALP seat (nominal) by redistributions in VIC.

 

- The new seat of Bean was created, an ALP seat (nominal) by redistributions in  ACT.

 

- The ALP seat of Port Adelaide was abolished by redistributions in South Australia.

 

- Independent won the LIberal seat of Wentworth after PM Turnbull vacated in 2018.

 

- The Liberal member of Chisolm defected to become an Independent in 2018.

 

- Several seats have had name changes following redistributions in SA, NT, TAS, VIC, ACT and QLD. 

 

 

SEE THE HOT SEATS CHAPTER FOR A DISCUSSION OF THE SEATS THE GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION PARTIES WILL BE WATCHING CAREFULLY AT THE 2019 ELECTION

COALITION SEATS -  (73 SEATS)

 

Seat Member Party Margin

 

Marginal

 

Corangamite (Vic) Sarah Henderson LIB 50.03

 

Capricornia (Qld) Michelle Landry LNP 50.6

 

Forde (Qld) Bert van Manen LNP 50.6

 

Gilmore (NSW) Ann Sudmalis LIB 50.7

 

Flynn (Qld) Ken O'Dowd LNP 51.0

 

^^^ ALP wins majority on a uniform swing ^^^

 

Grey (SA) Rowan Ramsay LIB 51.0

 

Robertson (NSW) Lucy Wicks LIB 51.1

 

Banks (NSW) David Coleman LIB 51.4

 

Petrie (Qld) Luke Howarth LNP 51.7

 

Dickson (Qld) Peter Dutton LNP 51.7

 

Hasluck (WA) Ken Wyatt LIB 52.1

 

Page (NSW) Kevin Hogan NAT 52.3

 

Boothby (SA)Nicolle Flint LIB 52.7

 

La Trobe (Vic) Jason Wood LIB 53.2

 

Dawson (Qld) George Christensen LNP 53.4

 

Bonner (Qld) Ross Vasta LNP 53.4

 

Barker (SA) Tony Pasin LIB 53.4

 

Pearce (WA) Christian Porter LIB 53.6

 

Swan (WA) Steve Irons LIB 53.6

 

Leichhardt (Qld) Warren Entsch LNP 54.0

 

Casey (Vic) Tony Smith LIB 54.5

 

Cowper(NSW) Luke Hartsuyker NAT 4.5

 

Reid (NSW) Craig Laundy LIB 54.7

 

Sturt (SA) Christopher Pyne LIB 55.4

 

Brisbane (Qld) Trevor Evans LNP 56.0

 

FAIRLY SAFE

 

Stirling (WA) Michael Keenan LIB 56.1

 

Deakin (Vic) Michael Sukkar LIB 56.4

 

Canning (WA) Andrew Hastie LIB 56.8

 

Bowman (Qld) Andrew Laming LNP 57.0

 

Flinders (Vic) Greg Hunt LIB 57.0

 

Aston (Vic) Alan Tudge LIB 57.4

 

Monash (Vic) Russell Broadbent LIB 57.5

 

Higgins (Vic) Kelly O'Dwyer LIB v GRN 57.3

 

Menzies (Vic) Kevin Andrews LIB 57.8

 

Wide Bay (Qld) Llew O'Brien LNP 58.1

 

Hinkler (Qld) Keith Pitt LNP 58.4

 

Ryan (Qld) Jane Prentice LNP 5

Fisher (Qld) Andrew Wallace LNP 59.2

 

Hughes (NSW) Craig Kelly LIB 59.3

 

Wannon (Vic) Dan Tehan LIB 59.1

 

Wright (Qld) Scott Buchholz LNP 59.6

 

Bennelong (NSW) John Alexander LIB 59.7

 

SAFE SEATS 

 

Hume (NSW) Angus Taylor LIB 60.2

 

Fairfax (Qld) Ted O'Brien LNP 60.8

 

Moore (WA) Ian Goodenough LIB 61.0

 

Durack (WA) Melissa Price LIB 61.1

 

Tangney (WA) Ben Morton LIB 61.1

 

Fadden (Qld) Stuart Robert LNP 61.2

 

Warringah (NSW) Tony Abbott LIB 11.5

 

Lyne (NSW) David Gillespie NAT 61.6

 

McPherson (Qld) Karen Andrews LNP 61.6

 

Calare (NSW) Andrew Gee NAT 61.8

 

Forrest (WA) Nola Marino LIB 62.6

 

Goldstein (Vic) Tim Wilson LIB 62.7

 

Kooyong (Vic) Josh Frydenberg LIB 62.8

 

North Sydney (NSW) Trent Zimmerman LIB 63.6

 

Moncrieff (Qld) Steven Ciobo LNP 64.5

 

O'Connor (WA) Rick Wilson LIB 65.0

 

Parkes (NSW) Mark Coulton NAT 65.1

 

Groom (Qld) John McVeigh LNP 65.3

 

Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison LIB 65.4

 

Mackellar (NSW) Jason Falinski LIB 65.7

 

Berowra (NSW) Julian Leeser LIB 66.4

 

Riverina (NSW) Michael McCormack NAT 66.4

 

Maranoa (Qld) David Littleproud LNP 17.5

 

Mitchell (NSW) Alex Hawke LIB 67.8

 

Gippsland (Vic) Darren Chester NAT 68.2

 

Mallee (Vic) Andrew Broad NAT 69.8

 

Farrer (NSW) Sussan Ley LIB 70.5

 

Curtin (WA) Julie Bishop LIB 70.7

 

Bradfield (NSW) Paul Fletcher LIB 71.0

 

Nicholls (Vic) Damian Drum NAT 72.3

 

New England (NSW) Barnaby Joyce NAT 73.6

 

 

AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY SEATS (71 SEATS)

 

MARGINAL SEATS 

 

Herbert (Qld) Cathy O'Toole ALP 50.02

 

Cowan (WA) Anne Aly ALP 50.7

 

Dunkley (Vic) ---------- (LIB)[a] ALP 51.0

 

^^^Coalition Government regains majority on a uniform swing ^^^

 

Lindsay (NSW) Emma Husar ALP 51.1

 

Macnamara (Vic) Michael Danby ALP 51.3

 

Griffith (Qld) Terri Butler ALP 51.4

 

Macquarie (NSW) Susan Templeman ALP 52.2

 

Braddon (Tas) Justine Keay ALP 52.4

 

Eden-Monaro (NSW) Mike Kelly ALP 52.9

 

Isaacs (Vic) Mark Dreyfus ALP 53.0

 

Lyons (Tas) Brian Mitchell ALP 53.8

 

Bendigo (Vic) Lisa Chesters ALP 53.9

 

Moreton (Qld) Graham Perrett ALP 54.0

 

Richmond (NSW) Justine Elliot ALP 54.0

 

Hotham (Vic) Clare O'Neil ALP 54.2

 

Cooper (Vic) Ged Kearney ALP v GRN 54.3

 

Longman (Qld) Susan Lamb ALP 54.5

 

Dobell (NSW) Emma McBride ALP 54.8

 

Wills (Vic) Peter Khalil ALP v GRN 54.9

 

Bass (Tas) Ross Hart ALP 55.4

 

Jagajaga (Vic) Jenny Macklin ALP 55.6

 

Lilley (Qld) Wayne Swan ALP 55.8

 

Grayndler (NSW) Anthony Albanese ALP 22.2

FAIRLY SAFE 

 

McEwen (Vic) Rob Mitchell ALP 56.0

 

Solomon (NT) Luke Gosling ALP 56.1

 

Greenway (NSW) Michelle Rowland ALP 56.3

 

Burt (WA) Matt Keogh ALP 57.1

 

Ballarat (Vic) Catherine King ALP 57.4

 

Parramatta (NSW) Julie Owens ALP 57.7

 

Lingiari (NT) Warren Snowdon ALP 58.1

 

Blair (Qld) Shayne Neumann ALP 58.1

 

Werriwa (NSW) Anne Stanley ALP 58.2

 

Corio (Vic) Richard Marles ALP 58.2

 

Barton (NSW) Linda Burney ALP 58.3

 

Macarthur (NSW) Mike Freelander ALP 58.3

 

Adelaide (SA) Kate Ellis ALP 58.3

 

Hindmarsh (SA) Steve Georganas ALP 58.4

 

Kingsford Smith (NSW) Matt Thistlethwaite ALP 58.6

 

Bean (ACT) New seat ALP 58.9

 

Oxley (Qld) Milton Dick ALP 59.0

 

Shortland (NSW) Pat Conroy ALP 59.9

 

Holt (Vic) Anthony Byrne ALP 59.9

 

SAFE 

 

Maribyrnong (Vic) Bill Shorten ALP 60.4

 

Franklin (Tas) Julie Collins ALP 60.7

 

Paterson (NSW) Meryl Swanson ALP 60.7

 

Makin (SA) Tony Zappia ALP 60.7

 

Rankin (Qld) Jim Chalmers ALP 61.3

 

Brand (WA) Madeleine King ALP 61.4

 

Fenner (ACT) Andrew Leigh ALP 61.8

 

McMahon (NSW) Chris Bowen ALP 62.1

 

Hunter (NSW) Joel Fitzgibbon ALP 62.5

 

Canberra (ACT) Gai Brodtmann ALP 62.9

 

Cunningham (NSW) Sharon Bird ALP 63.3

 

Perth (WA) Patrick Gorman ALP 63.3

 

Kingston (SA) Amanda Rishworth ALP 63.5

 

Whitlam (NSW) Stephen Jones ALP 63.7

 

Newcastle (NSW) Sharon Claydon ALP 63.8

 

Bruce (Vic) Julian Hill ALP 64.0

 

Lalor (Vic) Joanne Ryan ALP 64.1

 

Gellibrand (Vic) Tim Watts ALP 65.1

 

Sydney (NSW) Tanya Plibersek ALP 65.3

 

Spence (SA) Nick Champion ALP 67.1

 

Fremantle (WA) Josh Wilson ALP 67.2

 

Fowler (NSW) Chris Hayes ALP 67.5

 

Watson (NSW) Tony Burke ALP 67.6

 

Gorton (Vic) Brendan O'Connor ALP 68.4

 

Chifley (NSW) Ed Husic ALP 69.2

 

Blaxland (NSW) Jason Clare ALP 69.5

 

Scullin (Vic) Andrew Giles ALP 19.5

 

Calwell (Vic) Maria Vamvakinou ALP 19.7

 

Fraser (Vic) New seat ALP 19.7

 

 

CROSSBENCH SEATS (7)

 

Seat Member Party Margin

 

Wentworth (NSW) Kerryn Phelps IND 51.2 v LIB

 

Chisholm (Vic) Julia Banks IND 52.9  v ALP

 

Indi (Vic) Cathy McGowan IND 55.5 v LIB

 

Mayo (SA) Rebekha Sharkie CA 57.5 v LIB

 

Kennedy (Qld) Bob Katter KAP 61.1 v LNP

 

Clark (Tas) Andrew Wilkie IND 67.8 v ALP

 

Melbourne (Vic) Adam Bandt GRN 69.0 v LIB

 

 

 

 2016 ELECTION RESULTS 

 

 

 

In the 2016 election, the Coalition lost 16 seats and 2 gained seats [Table One], leaving the Turnbull Government with a paper thin one seat majority of 76 seats.

 

20 surviving Coalition seats were left in vulnerable territory, with a 2PP margin of 0.03 - 4.0 percent to defend at the 2019 election.

 

The Australian Labor Party won 15 seats and lost one seat to then Liberal Julia Banks in Chisolm [Table One].

 

This result left Labor with 69 seats, 7 seats short of majority government in 2016.

 

NXT won 1 seat (Mayo) from the Coalition. Two Independents, Katter Party and the Australian Greens held their 1 seat to complete the 150 seat House of Representatives. 

 

TABLE ONE: 2016 ELECTION SEATS THAT CHANGED HANDS [18]

 

Chisholm VIC Liberal 3.4 

 

Fairfax QLD Liberal 11.0 

 

Mayo SA NXT/IND 8.0* 

 

Herbert QLD ALP 0.02 

 

Cowan WA ALP 0.7 

 

Lindsay NSW  ALP 1.1 

 

Macquarie NSW ALP 2.2 

 

Braddon TAS ALP 2.4* 

 

Eden-Monaro NSW ALP 2.9 

 

Lyons TAS ALP 4.0*

 

Longman QLD ALP 4.5* 

 

Dobell NSW ALP 4.8 

 

Bass TAS ALP 5.3* 

 

Solomon NT ALP 6.1*

 

Hindmarsh SA ALP 8.2* 

 

Barton NSW ALP 8.3 

 

Macarthur NSW ALP 8.3 

 

Paterson NSW ALP 10.7 

 

Notes: The average swing to seats won by the Labor Party was 6.2 % 2PP. This list includes adjustment since 2016 from 7 by-elections and redistributions in 2018: This list includes adjustment since 2016 from 5 by-elections and redistributions in 2018

 

Summary of Seats Status: 2016 Election

 

Coaliton   76      ALP 69     Others 5 Total 150

 

 

Since the 2016 election, several changes to the Australian electorate have occurred.

 

 The Australian Electoral Commission has conducted redistributions in Tasmania, Victoria, South Australia, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory.

 

- In South Australia, the ALP held seat of Port Adelaide was abolished and Wakefield was renamed Spence;

 

- In Tasmania, the name of the Independent held seat of Denison was changed to Clark;

 

- In the ACT, the new notional ALP seat of Bean (8.9) was introduced;

 

- In Queensland and NT, only minor 2PP adjustments occurred in seats;

 

- In Victoria, the most significant changes occurred

 

 o The new notional ALP seat of Fraser (20.6) was introduced;

 

o The seat of Dunkley transitioned to a notional ALP seat;

 

o The 2PP margin in the Liberal held seat of Corangamite was reduced to 0.03 %;

 

o The seat of Melbourne Ports name was changed to Macnamara;

 

o The seat of McMillan name was changed to Monash;

 

o The seat of Murray name was changed to Nicholls;

 

o The seat of Batman name was changed to Cooper.

 

The 2PP margin in many of the seats redistributed changed, some gaining and some losing both geographical territory and the estimated 2PP margin in the electorate.

 

Seven by-elections were held in the seats of

 

Batman [now Cooper]

 

Mayo

 

Braddon

 

Perth

 

Freemantle

 

Longman 

 

Wentworth

 

 

Mayo, Braddon, Perth, Freemantle and Longman were retained by the 2016 election winning incumbent.

 

Batman/Cooper was retained by Labor with a new representative.

 

The Liberal seat of Wentworth was won in the by election by independent Kerryn Phelps.

 

 Liberal member for Chisolm Julia Banks resigned to become an Independent. 

 

 

 

 

FUNDAMENTALS

 

1.      To win an election and become the Australian Government for the next three years, a political Party or a coalition of parties must win a majority of seats in the HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES. 

 

2.      In Australia, the two major groups are the AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY [ALP] and the COALITION which is a formal amalgamation of LIBERAL PARTY, LIBERAL NATIONAL PARTY (LNP), COUNTRY LIBERAL PARTY and NATIONAL PARTY elected members. 

 

3      There are currently 150 seats in the House of Representatives. However, at the 2019 election the numbers of seats rises to 151 seats in response to an increased number of people eligible to vote and the reshuffle of the number of voters in federal election electorates. 

 

4. In order to win  'minority government', a major party must negotiate an alliance with a minor party that takes their collective number of seats to 76 or more.  This was the case in 2010 when the ALP formed a 'minority government' in alliance with the Australian Greens. 

 

5. In order to win  'majority government',  the Coalition or the ALP must win 76 seats or more at the 2019 election. 

 

6. The SENATE is critical to effective GOVERNMENT, because legislation proposed in the HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES must go to the SENATE for review and approval before it goes back to the HOUSE for final ratification. The legislation is then put into practice through the relevant Government Departments.

 

7. A party needs 39 seats in the senate to hold a senate majority - most often a voting bloc formed by two parties and even then a rare occurance in modern Australian politics.  The last time this happened was in 2010 when the ALP (31 seats) formed an informal 40 seat voting bloc with the Austalian Greens (9 seats) on most things.

 

8. The last time a genuine senate majoriy occured was in 1951 when the Coalition held 32 of 60 Senate seats. 

 

 

NEW SOUTH WALES SEAT PENDULUM 

Source:https://mel365.com/media/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Best_photography_locations_Sydney_10c_Sydney_20130809_002_3_4-2_Bay_-bridge_-Harbour_-Luna-Park_-Sydney-min-491x735.jpg

SEATS IN NEW SOUTH WALES 

 

COALITION 22     ALP 24     OTHERS 1  TOTAL 47

 

Coalition Seats (22)

 

Electorate Margin 2PP

 

Gilmore  LIB 0.7

 

Robertson  LIB 1.1

 

Banks LIB 1.4

 

Page NAT 2.3

 

Reid LIB 4.7

 

Hughes LIB 9.3

 

Bennelong LIB 9.7

 

Hume LIB 10.2

 

Warringah LIB 11.1

 

Lyne NAT 11.6

 

Calare NAT 11.8

 

Cowper NAT 12.6

 

North Sydney LIB 13.6

 

Parkes NAT 15.1

 

Cook LIB 15.4

 

Mackellar LIB 15.7

 

Berowra LIB 16.4

 

New England  NAT 16.4

 

Riverina NAT 16.4

 

Mitchell LIB 17.8

 

Farrer LIB 20.5

 

Bradfield LIB 21.0

 

 

 

Australian Labor Party Seats (24)

 

Electorate   Margin 2PP 

 Lindsay ALP 1.1

 

Macquarie ALP 2.2

 

Eden-Monaro ALP 2.9

 

Richmond ALP 4.0

 

Dobell ALP 4.8

 

Greenway ALP 6.3

 

Parramatta ALP 7.7

 

Werriwa ALP 8.2

 

Barton ALP 8.3

 

Macarthur ALP 8.3

 

Kingsford Smith ALP 8.6

 

Shortland ALP 9.9

 

Paterson ALP 10.7

 

McMahon ALP 12.1

 

Hunter ALP 12.5

 

Cunningham ALP 13.3

 

Whitlam ALP 13.7

 

Newcastle ALP 13.8

 

Sydney ALP 15.3

 

Fowler ALP 17.5

 

Watson ALP 17.6

 

Chifley ALP 19.2

 

Blaxland ALP 19.5

 

Grayndler ALP 22.4

 

 

Other (1)

 

Independent  Wentworth 1.2

VICTORIAN  SEAT PENDULUM

Source:https://outbackfree.imgix.net/content/places/slider.png?w=900&h=540&fit=crop&crop=center&auto=format&ixlib=imgixjs-3.0.4

SEATS IN VICTORIA

 

COALITION 15      ALP 20      OTHERS 3      T0TAL 38

 

Electorate Margin 2PP

 

Coalition Seats (15)

 

Electorate   Margin 

                  2PP

 

 

AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY SEATS  (20) 

 

Electorate Margin 2PP

 

 

 

OTHERS (3) 

 

Electorate Margin 2PP

 

 

QUEENSLAND SEAT PENDULUM

Source: https://www.abc.net.au/news/image/10731438-3x2-700x467.jpg

SEATS IN QUEENSLAND 

 

 

COALITION 21      ALP 8      OTHERS 1      TOTAL 30

 

 

 

Coalition Seats (21)

 

 Electorate Margin 2PP

 

 

Australian Labor Party Seats (8)

 

  Electorate Margin 2PP

 

 

 

Others  (1)

 

Electorate Margin 2PP

 

 

WESTERN AUSTRALIA SEAT PENDULUM

Source: https://v.fastcdn.co/u/78962b14/34569226-0-1.jpg

WESTERN AUSTRALIA SEATS

 

COALITION  11     ALP 5 OTHER 0 TOTAL 16

 

 

Coalitian Seats (11) 

 

Electorate Margin 2PP

 

Hasluck LIB 2.1

 

Pearce LIB 3.6

 

Swan LIB 3.6

 

Stirling LIB 6.1

 

Canning LIB 6.8

 

Moore LIB 11.0

 

Durack LIB 11.1

 

Tangney LIB 11.1

 

Forrest LIB 12.6

 

O'Connor LIB 15.0

 

Curtin LIB 20.7

 

 

 

Australian Labor Party Seats (5)

 

Electorate Margin 2PP

 

Cowan ALP 0.7

 

Burt ALP 7.1

 

Brand ALP 11.4

 

Perth ALP 13.3

 

 

Freemantle ALP 17.2

 

 

 

 

 

SOUTH AUSTRALIA SEAT PENDULUM

Source: https://adelady.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/12928215_575348329295074_7745582215650604493_n-e1473337645673.jpg

SOUTH AUSTRALIA SEATS

 

 

COALITION  4      ALP 5      OTHER  1      TOTAL   10

 

 

Coalitian Seats (4)

 

Electorate Margin 2PP

 

Australian Labor Party Seats (5)

 

Electorate Margin 2PP

 

 

Other Seats (1)

 

Electorate Margin 2PP

 

 

 

 

Note : Port Adelaide ALP - Abolished in Redistribution 2016-2107.

 

 

 

Source: ABC News 2016-17 Federal Redistribution - South Australia

 

.https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal-redistribution-2018/sa/

 

TASMANIA SEAT PENDULUM

Source:https://cache-graphicslib.viator.com/graphicslib/page-images/742x525/255652_Viator_Shutterstock_161919.jpg

SEATS IN TASMANIA 

 

COALITION 0 ALP 4 OTHERS 1 TOTAL 5

 

Australian Labor Party Seats (4)

 

Electorate Margin 2PP

 

 

 

Others (1)

 

Electorate Margin 2PP

 

 

 

Source: ABC News. 2016-2017 Federal Redistribution. Tasmania Redistribution

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal-redistribution-2018/tas/

AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY SEAT PENDULUM

Source:https://www.abc.net.au/news/image/7747640-3x2-700x467.jpg

SEATS IN THE AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY {ACT)

 

COALITION 0       ALP 3       OTHERS 0      TOTAL 3

 

Australian Labor Party Seats (3) 

 

Electorate Margin 2PP

 

 

Bean ALP 8.8   new seat

 

Fenner ALP 11.8

 

Canberra ALP 12.9

 

Source: ABC News 2016-17 Federal Redistribution - Australian Capital Territory. https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal-redistribution-2018/act/

NORTHERN TERRITORY SEAT PENDULUM

Source: https://mapi15rc.azureedge.net/media/libraries/images/darwin.jpg

SEATS IN THE NORTHERN TERRITORY 

 

 

COALITION 0      ALP 2      OTHERS 0      TOTAL 2

 

 

Australian Labor Party Seats (2)

 

  Electorate Margin 2PP  

 

 

 

Solomon ALP 6.0 

 

Lingiari ALP 8.1

 

 

Source: ABC News 2016-17 Federal Redistribution - Northern Territory.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal-redistribution-2018/nt/

 

 

Source: https://www.aph.gov.au/~/media/03%20Senators%20and%20Members/31%20Senators/chamber.jpg?h=189&la=en&w=758

 

 

THE SENATE [76 SEATS]

 

39 SEATS WINS A MAJORITY AND CONTROL OF THE SENATE

 

A senator is a member of the Australian Senate, elected to represent a state or territory. There are 76 senators, 12 from each state and two each from the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory.

 

                                                                         2016               2019

                                                                       ELECTION       PRE-ELECTION

                                                                                RESULTS            CHANGES

 

Coalition                                                             30                    31

Liberal                                                                 25                    25

National Party                                                     5                       6

 

Australian Labor Party                                     26                    26

 

Australian Greens                                              9                       8

 

Pauline Hanson One Nation Party                  4                       2

 

Centre Alliance [ex Nick Xenephon Team]    3                       2

 

Jacqui Lambie Network                                   1                       0

 

Hinch Social Justice                                         1                       1

 

Liberal Democrats                                             1                       1

 

Family First                                                         1                       0

 

Australian Conservatives                                 0                       1

 

United Australia                                                 0                       1

 

Independent Timothy Storer                            0                       1

 

Independent Fraser Anning                              0                       1

 

TOTAL                                                                 76                     75*

 

 

The Coalition take 31 of 76 Senate seats into the 2019 election. The Coalition have to win 23 of 40 Senate seats up for re-election in 2019 to to win a Senate majority.  This is highly unlikely because --

 

(1) the Liberals will not get a chance to reclaim the seat lost to defector Cori Bernadi SA until 2022;

 

 (2) the TAS Nationals seat gifted to the Coalition when Jackie Lambie Network reject Steve Martin joined the Nationals is very unlikely to hold this seat for the Nationals in  foreign territory and Jacqui Lambie is campaigning to "take my seat back from him";

 

(3) the SA senate seat gifted to the Liberals when a Family First replacement for Bob Day became homeless will have to be 'won' by election in a State where the six available seats will be contested by the popular return candidacy of Skye Kakoschke Moore [Centre Alliance] , Sarah Hanson-Young [Australian Greens], new candidates from both those parties, the Australian Conservatives and other minor parties.

 

(4) Only 16 of the current crop of 31 Coaliiton senators will not have to stand for re-election until 2022.  39 for majority minus 16 held means 23 needed of 40 seats available in 2019. 

 

 The Australian Labor Party takes 26 of 76 seats into the 2019 Senate contest. This party would have to win.26.of the 40 available seats to win a senate majority. This is not possible; the party will have to rely on an informal voting bloc with the Australian Greens (9) and the cooperation of 4 other minor party or Independent senators to have a control

Notes

 

*75 Seats in the Senate accounted for. 1 vacant due to Andrew Bartlett QLD resignation

 

--Liberal Party Cory Bernadi SA defected to his own party Australian Conservatives and Lucy Gichuhi SA joined the Liberals after Family First leader Bob Day was disqualified and Family First dissolved.

 

--National Party: Steve Martin TAS replaced Jacqui Lambie as a JLN Senator, was dismissed from JLN and joined the National Party.

 

--Australian Greens: Larissa Waters QLD was replaced by Andrew Bartlett who later resigned, leaving the QLD senate seat vacant.

 

--Pauline Hanson One Nation Party: Brian Burston in NSW defected to United Australia Party  -Fraser Anning  in QLD went to Katter’s Australian Party, was dis-endorsed- now an Independent but registering Fraser Anning's Conservative National party for 2019.

 

--Centre Alliance [ex Nick Xenephon Team]: Tim Storer replaced Skye Kakoschke-Moore, left the Party and became an Independent.

 

 - Family First: Bob Day was disqualified to sit as a Senator for bankruptcy. His replacement became a Liberal Senator after the party was dissolved.

 

THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE SENATE

 

2019 SENATE ELECTION FORECAST 

 

Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie observed that

 

, "Even when a government has a strong majority, they still have an interest in the crossbench because well-regarded independents have influence in the community and governments like to have [their] imprimatur," .There might only be a handful of us, but we represent millions of Australians and the government can’t ignore our voice."

 

 

In our two-party system, independents and minor parties  can develop a reputation for blocking policy rather than creating it according Danielle Wood at the Grattan Institute - especially in the Senate.

 

"In a way they’ve been more significant in terms of what they’ve prevented happening rather than new initiatives. The company tax cuts is the best example of that - the government was ultimately not able to get through tax cuts for firms with a turnover of more than $50 million and that was largely because they weren’t able to meet the demands of those crossbench senators."

 

Psephologist Kevin Bonham agrees. "For Labor and the Greens to gain the balance of power following a Labor win, virtually everything has to go right,"

 

 

THE SENATE BIG PICTURE

 

Here i am unashamedly paraphrasing the work of Kevin Bonham, Antony Green and other experts foresight to present an overview which identifies South Australia, New South Wales and Tasmania as the states to watch in the election to determine the balance of power in the Senate and either an effective, billing passing senate or another 'puppet government' [these days muppet government might be more appropriate] situtation for the voting public to live through after the 2019 election

 

Readers who prefer to get it 'straight from the  horses mouth' can go to Kevin Bonham's blog site and find it easily. Here is the address. 

 

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/

 

 

 

 

South Australia

 

At the  2019 election the Liberals are seeking re-election of three senators, the ALP 1, Australian Greens 1 and Independent Adam Storer. 

 

Liberals Assistant Minister Anne Ruston is expected to take the top spot on the Liberals South Australian ticket, given her seniority. The 2nd and 3rd ticket holder will be male candidates.

 

One of these three seats was gifted to the Liberals by Lucy Gichuhi-who was a FF senator- she is relegated to 4th spot for 2019.

 

The Liberals are very likely to retain  only 2 seats, leaving one seat available to other parties.

 

Adam Storer has no chance of defending his independent seat, leaving a 2nd seat available to others.

 

Labor will easily defend one seat and so too the Greens (Sarah Hanson-Young)

 

The Liberals (2), Australian Labor Party (1) and Australian Greens (1) successfully   holding four of six available seats leaves two seats left in South Australia.

 

Skye Kakoschke-Moore is tipped by some to have a successful return campaign after being disqualified for dual citizenship issues. The fifth seat is very likely to go to her as No1 ticket holder for the Centre Alliance (CA) party unless CA suffers more than a 30% loss of the votes NXT received in 2016 under now absent Nick Xenephon.

 

Pollbludger have CA tracking at only 5.9 percent at the House of Representatives level according to Kevin Bonham which puts her return to the senate in question. However, if she does lose this seat it will go to either the ALP or Greens and maintain their chances of senate control.

 

We come to the last of six 2019 senate seats in SA with the Liberal Party retaining 2 seats, the Australian Labor Party and Australian Greens retaining 1 each and Centre Alliance regaining the seat lost to now Independent Tim Storer.

 

The Australian Labor Party (ALP) is in a strong position to win the last of 6 seats in SA for their No 2 ticket holder.

 

If the ALP falls short, their preference would be for the Australian Greens to win the final senate seat ahead of Centre Alliance given the familiarity of an ALP-Greens voting bloc in the Senate and the more centrist leanings of Centre Alliance/NXT senators between 2016-2019. This is why Liberal Senator Cormann was lobbying both CA senators to support the government’ attempts to revive the failed big business tax cuts (not bothering to attempt courting the Australian Greens) in January 2019.

 

Verdict for South Australia: Liberals 2, ALP 2, Greens 1, Centre Alliance 1.

 

 

New South Wales 

 

Unless there is a Coalition senate vote collapse, the Coalition are expected to retain the National (1) and Liberal (1) senate seats up for re-election but gain no further seats in 2019.

 

The Australian Labor Party (ALP) will easily retain the one senate seat up for re-election in 2019.

 

Three other NSW senate seats will be selected in 2019. The most vulnerable seats are the minor party seats currently held by the Democratic Liberal Party (DLP) and United Australia party.

 

The Democratic Liberal Party senate seat. 

 

(1) Minor party senator David Lleyheolm is retiring to pursue a State Government position;

 

(2) He won the last of 12 senate seats for the DLP in 2016 in a double dissolution election;

 

(3) The DLP only received 51,500 No 1 votes for 1.5 percent of the 4,705,270 formal votes in NSW. The quota target was 345,554 in 2016 – in 2019 it will be 784,211+.

 

Therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that this Senate seat will not be retained by the DLP in 2019 and the DLP will not be likely to have any further prospects of a senate seat until the next double dissolution election.

 

The United Australia Party senate seat

 

The second minor party seat that will become available to other candidates is the seat of Brian Burston who won a NSW senate seat as a Pauline Hanson One Nation (PHON) candidate then defected to newly created United Australia party in 2018.

 

(1) Burston originally won his seat under the PHON party label;

 

(2) Burston received only 8,216 votes as No1 NSW senate ticket holder;

 

(3) PHON received only 184,012 votes for 4.1 percent of the formal State-wide senate vote in NSW when the quota was 345,554 votes for each of 12 seats; the 2019 quota will be 784,211+ votes;

 

(4) Burston was elected to the second last {11th} position ahead of David Lleyonhelm;

 

(5) Burston has defected to the new untested United Australia party formed by Clive Palmer.

 

(6) Under the former name, the Palmer United Party (PUP) received only 2,805 votes for 0.6 percent of the NSW state wide senate vote in 2016.

 

Therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that this minor party Senate seat will not be retained by Brian Burston for the United Australia party.

 

The other minor party seat up for re-election in 2019 for NSW is the Australian Greens senate seat.

 

On his blog site, seminal election analyst Kevin Bonham quickly gets his analysis of the NSW senate seat race to the point of conceding two seats to the Coalition, two seats to the Australian Labour Party and the elimination of all the minor candidates except the Pauline Hanson One Nation Party and the Australian Greens “in a state where they've had a lot of problems had a lot problems”. He may be referring to the resignation of Lee Rhiannon after another candidate won pre-selection ahead of her for the 2019 election.

 

At the 2016 election, the Australian Greens received 332,860 No 1 senate votes for 7.4 percent of the formal NSW senate votes (4,492,197). The seat quota was 345,554. Rhiannon came close to winning the seat without the need for the calculator at the Australian Electoral Commission to go very deep into the senate candidate elimination process [which defies sense when it is explained by anyone in Australia except Kevin Bonham or Antony Green].

 

Given this history in 2016, the count moves to 2 Coalition, 2 ALP and one Australian Greens senate seat conceded in NSW by the time the final seat is subject to the elimination process. Though not specifically stated, it appears that Kevin Bonham is also conceding the 5th available seat to the Australian Greens (unless they have a significant senate vote collapse).

 

The only reasonable possibility of this happening is if Lee Rhiannon takes her socialist leaning supporters with her and runs as an Independent which would achieve little more than adding another candidate to the elimination pile. Rhiannon would not have the necessary level of state-wide support to win as an independent.

 

Reading between the lines, Kevin Bonham’s analysis suggests the most likely scenario is that of the four remaining contenders for the final NSW seat, the ALP will be one of the last two contenders and the other will be the Australian Greens or PHON.

 

Bonham concludes that the final seat is “very likely” to go to either the ALP or the Australian Greens.

 

Tasmania

 

In Tasmania, the status quo will be shuffled about in 2019.

 

Jacqui Lambie is expected to return to the Senate under the Jackie Lambie Network party name.

 

Steve Martin’s National seat is expected to revert to a Liberal seat (the Coalition to retain the net 2 seats taken into the 2019 election).

 

One of the three Australian Labor Party seats or the Australian Greens seat taken into the election may fall to make way for Lambie.

 

Other States and Territories

 

 

In all other States and Territories other than NSW, SA and TAS,  the net result is expected to be the status quo, unless the swing against the Coalition in the House of Representatives is mirrored in the Senate

 

That is,

 

-   Larissa Waters wins the vacated Australian Greens seat in Queensland; 

 

-   Malcolm Roberts wins back his PHON seat in Queensland;

 

- Derryn Hinch retains his minor party senate seat in Victoria.

 

Finally, neither the Australian Conservatives, United Australia party, Democratic Liberal Party, Katter Australians party, Fraser Anning Conservative National party or any independent wins a senate seat at the 2019 election.

 

THE BOTTOM LINE 

 

As Kevin Bonham put it, this probable synopsis of the post-election balance of power in the Senate would make it much easier for an ALP government to govern effectively than Abbott, Turnbull or Morrison experienced.

 

Legislation by Labor (26 or 27 senate seats) supported by the Greens (9 or 10) and Centre Alliance (3) would be passed in the senate (39 votes) without the need to lobby the more unpredictable Jacqui Lambie and Derryn Hinch. A net gain of 1-2 seats for an ALP - Australian Greens informal alliance would also avoid the uncooperative moods of the more conservative PHON team or Cori Bernadi in his Australian Conservatives guise.

30 SENATORS FROM A 76 SEAT SENATE  [39.4%]

 

 The Senate exit doors already had double digit numbers leaving or already left by  the end of 2018, with more to follow.

 

 

Waiting for the ELECTION BELLS TO RING [6]

 

 

Brian Burston - Senator NSW United Australia party.

 

Burston won 8,216 votes as number one NSW senate ticket holder for Pauline Hanson One Nation Party (174,633) when 12 seats were in play in NSW in 2016. Resigned to join United Australia Party (2,618 votes in NSW as PUP). In 2019 only six seats will be in play, requiring 784,211+ votes to make the quota in NSW. The United Australia party are very unlikely to win this many NSW senate votes in 2019, either by first preferences or other preference flows.

 

Barry O’Sullivan - Senator QLD LNP

 

O’Sullivan won 1,381 votes as number 5 LNP senate ticket holder for QLD (922,925) when 12 seats were in play in 2016. Lost pre-selection to a female candidate following  misogyny in the Senate and pecuniary interest questions around a family business receiving tax payer funds. In 2019 only six seats will be in play, requiring 469,832+ votes to make the Quota for a seat in QLD. Expected to retire before the election.

 

Fraser Anning – Senator QLD Independent

 

Anning won 19 votes as number 3 Pauline Hanson One Nation party senate ticket holder for QLD (250,126) when 12 seats were in play in 2016. Resigned from Pauline Hanson One Nation Party immediately after replacing disqualified Malcolm Roberts. Later joined Katter’s Australians Party. He was dis-endorsed after Nazi-likened “final solution” comments in the Senate. Completed hat trick of controversy by charging the Australian tax-payer thousands of dollars to travel to Melbourne for a ‘rally’ including white supremacist neo-Nazi skin heads in January 2019 to ‘represent’ his 19 constituents. Formed his own party but has no hope of winning a senate seat.

 

 

Steve Martin Senator TAS National Party

 

Martin won 233 votes as number 2 Jackie Lambie Network senate ticket holder for TAS (16,411) when 12 seats were in play in 2016. Martin was granted the seat after Lambie was disqualified over dual citizenship issues. He was subsequently dismissed from the JLN party and became a National Party senator. In 2019 only six seats will be in play - requiring 58,563 + votes to make the Quota for a seat in TAS. Tasmania is essentially foreign territory for the Nationals, Martin would have to out vote quota Jackie Lambie, third tier Liberal and Australian Labor Party candidates and an Australian Greens 2nd tier candidate to retain this seat for the Nationals. He will be on a new career path by June.

 

Tim Storer Senator SA Independent

 

Storer won 189 votes as number 4 Nick Xenephon Team senate ticket holder for SA (230,703 votes) when 12 seats were in play in 2016. He did not secure a seat at the election. Storer was overlooked when the team policy advisor [not on the ticket] was given a senate seat after Xenephon resigned. When the third successful candidate was disqualified, he took the matter to the High court along with the Attorney General and won the right to claim the seat. In 2019 only six seats will be in play - requiring 182,951 + votes to make the Quota for a seat in SA in 2019- No hope of retaining his Senate seat as an Independent and is unwelcome at Centre Alliance after a controversial High Court battle. Storer will be looking for a new career path in 2019.

 

 

Lucy Gichuhi Senator SA Family First/Liberal Party

 

Gichuhi won 152 votes as number 2 SA senate ticket holder for the Family First party (30,466) when 12 seats were in play in QLD in 2016. She was granted a senate seat after Bob Day was disqualified on bankruptcy issues. Transferred to the Liberal Party soon after. In 2019 only six seats will be in play, requiring 182,951 + votes to make the quota in SA. She has also be relegated to an untenable position on the SA Liberal candidate ticket for 2019. Gichuhi will be looking for a new career path in 2019 and may follow up her 2018 threat to “expose” sexism and bullying in the Liberal Party on the way out the door.

 

Disqualified [10]

 

Fiona Nash National Senator NSW - dual national with the UK. Ruled ineligible.

 

Stephen Parry Liberal Senator TAS - dual national with the UK. Ruled Ineligible.

 

Katy Gallagher ALP Senator ACT - dual national with the UK. Ruled ineligible.

 

Scott Ludlam Australian Greens Senator WA-  dual national with NZ. Resigned 

 

Larissa Waters Australian Greens Senator QLD -  dual national with Canada. Resigned 

 

Skye Kakoschke-Moore NXT Senator SA - dual national with the UK. Ruled inegible.

 

Malcolm Roberts PHON Senator QLD - dual national with the UK. Ruled ineligible.

 

Jacqui Lambie JLN Senator TAS - dual national with the UK. Ruled Ineligible.

 

Bob Day Family First Senator SA - Bankrupt Ruled ineligible

 

Rod Culleton PHON Senator WA - Ruled ineligible

 

Retiring [7]

 

 

John Williams Nationals Senator NSW - Retiring

 

David Leyonhjelm LDP Senator NSW-  Retiring to transfer to State politics.

 

David Bushby Liberal Senator TAS - Retired to become a Consul-General in Chicago.

 

Nigel Scullion  Liberal  Senator NT - Retiring

 

Jacinta Collins ALP Senator VIC - Retiring 

 

Gavin Mitchell ALP Senator VIC - lost 2nd spot pre-selection for 2019

 

Doug Cameron ALP Senator NSW Retiring

 

Resigned [7]

 

 

Stephen Conroy ALP Senator VIC -  Resignation

 

Sam Dastyari  ALP Senator NSW - Resignation

 

Chris Back Liberal Senator WA - Resignation 

 

George Brandis LNP Senator QLD - Resigned to become a  High Commissioner.

 

Nick Xenephon NXT Senator SA - Resigned to transfer to State politics.

 

Andrew Bartlett Australian Greens Senator QLD - Resigned to vacate seat for Waters.

 

Lee Rhiannon Australian Greens Senator NSW - Lost Pre-selection.

 

40 SENATE SEATS COME UP FOR RE-ELECTION IN 2019: SIX IN EACH STATE AND TWO IN BOTH TERRITORIES.