Pauline Hanson One Nation Party [PHON] Election Prospects
1 HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Some election observers have raised the fanciful possibility of PHON party taking seats away from the LNP in one, perhaps two or safe LNP electorates at the next election in Queensland.
PHONs best prospects of winning a lower house seat are in Liberal National Party seats the North and West regions of Queensland where the ALP primary vote is low
These seats include –
2016 ELECTION PRIMARY VOTE
MINOR PARTIES LNP PHON
WRIGHT 35.5 41.8 20.9
WIDE BAY 32.7 43.8 15.6
LEICHARDT 32.4 39.4 7.6
FLYNN 29.5 37.0 17.1
HINKLER 29.5 43.8 19.1
- To win a seat PHON would need Labor to preference PHON ahead of Coalition candidates.
-Labor has consistently put PHON behind Coalition candidates in How-To-Vote cards since Pauline Hanson inception in 1998;
- The Coalition have put PHON preference behind Labor in the past 2 elections How-To-Vote cards;
-Two-Third's of people living in Queensland now live between Noosa and the NSW border, not in the deep north.
- The LNP had a swing of -6.1% 2PP and 7.8% PV in Herbert in 2016. Other minor parties including Katter Party, Family First, the Liberal Democrats and Lazarus Party scattered 2nd preferences. The ALP win came from those minor party preferences.
Pauline Hanson One Nation Party influence on Major Party Prospects
In December 2018, Ann Remeikis for The Guardian reported that Government’s attack on Labor’s ‘retiree tax’ appeared to had failed because the
"yuletide season didn’t bring any good news for the Morrison government, with Newspoll showing the prime minister has failed to win over the grey vote, despite a concentrated attack against Labor’s “retiree tax”.
Morrison and the treasurer, Josh Frydenberg spent the best part of the year attacking the plan as “punishing those who save for retirement”, aiming their message at the key baby-boomer demographic.
Remeikis' analysis of the last quarter Newspoll by The Australian newspaper found support for the Coalition in the 50+ bracket has been falling since the 2016 election, when almost half supported the Turnbull government. From a high of 49.9% at the July 2016 election, support in that age group dropped to 44% in July-August in 2018, before falling again to 41% following the leadership spill in August and dropping to 40% in the October-December Newspoll.
The same analysis shows PHON, which received 1.8% of the baby-boomer primary vote in 2016, is now polling at 9% in the same bracket. The Coalition was losing part of its baby-boomer vote to One Nation.
PHON's rise as the disillusioned baby-boomer party of choice put the Coalition’s plans of holding its 21 Queensland seats in jeopardy.
PHON votes helped state Labor win the 2017 election and contributed to the drubbing the Coalition received in the Longman byelection of 2018.
PHON achieved almost 16% of the primary vote in Longman, despite Pauline Hanson being out of the country on a cruise around Ireland for much of the byelection campaign.
PHON's rise in the seat came largely at the expense of the Coalition, which saw its primary vote in the seat drop by 9.5%.
The Longman result was the final straw that triggered the Liberal Party leadership spill. Longman shares similarities with Petrie, held by Luke Howarth and parts of Dickson, held by the home affairs minister, Peter Dutton, as well a seats in north Queensland, Forde and Flynn.
Source: Ann Remeikis The Guardian. Newspoll fails to bring Christmas cheer to Coalition as grey voters desert Morrison 27 December 2018. add section ADD CONTENT
PHON will have an increasing influence in Queensland where the support base is strongest.
The Longman By Election, amongst other things, set off a leadership challenge from Queenslander Peter Dutton against a Prime Minister. Why?
- The LNP PV slumped from 40.0 % to 29.6% -10.4%
- The ALP PV improved from 35.4% TO 39.8% + 4.4%
- The ALP 2PP Improved from 50.7 TO 54.4 % 2PP + 3.7%
- The PHON PV Improved from 9.4% to15.9% +6.5%
- The GRN PV improved from 4.4% TO 4.8% +0.4%
On the Longman results, PHON will place candidates in more Queensland seats, most likely covering 20 of the thirty seats. PHON has already announced it will be contesting the (0.03) LNP seat of Capricornia.
PHON influence in the Western Australia State election
The PHON primary vote (4.9%) in the Western Australian State election was minimal compared to Queensland.
Moreover, despite the Liberal – PHON preference deal, PHON preferences flowed only 60 % to the Liberals. That election was decided on the collapse of the Liberal Party's primary vote to 31.2%.
PHON in Queensland
ALP seats in Queensland are not likely to be threatened by PHON voters at the next election
- Herbert (0.2) because of the ‘somophore surge’ for the new Labor incumbent;
- Longman (4.4) because of the ‘somophore surge’ which saw the 2PP margin increase in the 2018 by-election despite the PHON primary vote rising from 9.4% to 15.9%.
- Blair (8.8) because the ALP PV was 41.9% in 2016 despite PHON getting a PV of 15.5%, and
- Oxley (9.0) because of the ‘somophore surge’ and a 46% PV for the ALP in 2016.
Electors who voted Family First in the LNP seats of Capricornia (0.6), Forde (0.7), Petrie (1.7), Dickson (2.0), Dawson (3.4), Bonner (3.4), Brisbane (6.1) and Ryan (8.8) in 2016 are much more likely to vote for PHON than the Australian Conservatives next time around, assuming PHON runs candidates in these previously uncontested seats. PHON has announced a candidate for Capricornia.
PHON primary votes may improve in two other targeted Coalition seats,
Flynn (1.0) where PHON won 17.5% of the primary vote in 2016 and
Leichardt (3.9) where the PHON primary vote was 7.6%.
In 2016, PHON gave their preferences to the ALP in Longman — the seat once held for the Coalition by Wyatt Roy — Labor picked up 56.5 per cent of PHON preferences, helping cut Roy's lead of 422 votes to a deficit of 1,390.
In the other 2016 ALP gain in Queensland — Herbert – PHON issued a split ticket. Ewen Jones led the count by 1,264 votes with three candidates standing. The 19,000 PHON preferences helped deliver Labor a 37-vote victory.
State wide, PHON preferences flowed 51.8% to the LNP and 48.2% to the ALP in 2016.
A PHON will have to recontest 12 seats stood for in 2016 and field candidates for a further 8 seats to have a powerful influence on elections results in Queensland. Capricornia was one new PHON seat nominee announced for 2019.
B PHON is no threat to current Queensland ALP seats, except Herbert with a very slim 2PP lead.
C. For every person in Queensland who changes their primary vote from Family First or the LNP to PHON as a protest vote against the Liberal leadership change or both major parties, the more likely it becomes that several seats targeted by the ALP in Queensland will fall at the next election.
D PHON best chances are in Queensland electorates where the main contender is Labor and they finish ahead of the Coalition in primary votes. The LNP won 35% of the primary vote in Herbert in 2016 yet lost the seat to Labor.
PHON has little prospect of winning a House of Representatives seat at this election. The crucial PHON Party influence will be in their second preference flows.